MD Dan Erickson and MD Artin Massihihad had a clear view after only one month residing in Lockdowningstreet, as they spoke facts and figures in their 27 April Youtube video:
‘We keep hearing ‘following the science ‘, what is science essentially? It is the study of the natural world through experimental observation. We are studying the diseases around us, making observations, and doing testing to figure out wat is going on.
Our volumes have dropped significantly, the ICU’s are empty, our health system is at a minimal capacity.
Through the focus on covid, people with all other critical ailments chose not to come, based on fear. How we can best respond as a nation to this?
If we compare everything we have studied and put that against the rules, well, typically you quarantine the sick, we have never seen you quarantine the healthy.
Instead of a panic reaction, how should we respond according to science?
We gained a lot of data the past weeks, in our county we tested over 5000 people, we had 340 cases, or 6.5%.
For the whole of California on 26/4 we had 60 000+ cases out of 280 000 tests, or 12%. 12% would indicate that there is a widespread viral infection, similar to flu. This is our own data, not filtered by anyone.
How we should respond based on this kind of prevalence?
The initial models proved inaccurate with their millions of deaths. If we extrapolate these results to the whole population of California, we end up with 4.7million cases. 1200 deaths in California, with an estimated 4.7 million cases, gives a 0.03 % chance of dying from this ‘killer virus‘.
Does that necessitate sheltering in place, does that necessitate shutting down medical systems, does that necessitate people being out of work?
When you realize that 96% recover with no significant continuing medical issues!
We found 6.5% in our own county, California 12%, the more you test, the more positives you get. With thus the prevalence number going up, while the death figures stay the same, the % of deaths or how deadly or frightening the disease is, goes down.
Extrapolating the data is the best we can do at this point. We will never know exact and for sure, but at least this way is far more accurate than the predictive models.
New York state, 20,000 deaths out of 19 million people, gives a death rate of 0.1%.
For the USA as a whole: 890,000 cases out of 4 million tests, 19% positive, if this is a typical extrapolation, of the 328 million population that 19% is 64 million cases, similar to the flu.
In 2017 and 2018 there were 50 to 60 million people with flu, similar death rate, 43,000 deaths, always between 35 and 60,000 deaths in USA every single year, without pandemic pep talk nor lockdown.
In Spain 22% of those tested were positive, with a statistically relevant number of tests done: 900,000 tests. So, extrapolated we should have 10 million cases.
21,000 died out of 47 million, which gives you a 0.05% chance of dying. 90% recovered without hospital.
(FYI : Spain registered 28,422 deaths by July, 21th 2020, thus finally 0.068% chance of dying)
When you pop up a system of lockdown, you should compare it with a system of no lockdown. Let’s take Sweden and Norway as a case-study.
What happened in those two countries? Are they vastly different? Did Sweden have a massive outbreak, did Norway have nothing?
Sweden has 1700 deaths, out of 10 million people. Norway, 182 deaths, out of 5 million, 0.003% death 97% recovery
A little better, but is it worth it?
What has quarantine caused?
Globally, abusive cases do increase at a severe rate, like child and spouse molestation. People with no paycheck turning to alcoholism, drug abuse, experiencing anxiety, depression. Economic collapse made suicide numbers spiking. Education dropped and some of these children should play with intoxicated parents.
These are real things we see in our clinics, although you don ‘t read about it in the news, these things are spiking all over the world.
These things last a lifetime, this is not seasonal flu, this will follow these people and affect them in a negative way the rest of their life.
Now let’s compare with the flu virus:
On average we have in the USA 24,000 deaths each year. In 2017 we had 45 million cases, with 62,000 deaths. This gives you a 0.13%chance of dying of the seasonal flu, much more than covid.
So, if covid is indeed widespread but its lethality is much less than flu, why the hell are we in this police state?
We are not making political choices here; we are only raising questions that pop up following science!
We made it our life’s work to understand this stuff, our immune system is built by exposure to anti-gens, viruses and bacteria.
When you are a small child crawling on the ground, you are putting stuff in your mouth, viruses and bacteria come in, this is how the immune system develops.
When you take people kept in their house and let them disinfect the whole of their indoor surroundings, you will kill indeed most of that small guys. But our immune system is used to touching, we share bacteria, we develop an immune response daily to this stuff. When you take that away from me, sheltering in place, my immune system drops. You keep me there in place for weeks on end, and it drops even more. People are constantly washing their hands worrying about things they indeed need to survive!
Combined we have 40 years of experience in this, this is common-sense immunology!
Quarantine decreases your immune system! If you have a normal functioning immune system you need interaction to keep it running.
O.k., if someone has a reduced immune system, you hide them away, because for the moment, they can’t build it.
In the womb there is a protected environment, later an immune system has to be built through touching and immune responses, according to the specific intruders present on the place where one lives. That is why the first months a baby is very vulnerable to opportunistic infections because it has not yet the micros of the community.
People are worrying too much from the panic-invoking media which makes them exaggerate in their sheltering in place. When they come out with decreased immune system and starting trading viruses and bacteria, what is gonna happen?! Disease is gonna spike, that is not what you want to set up for a healthy society.
Why dr Fauci and other top drs worldwide say that this is 10 times deadlier than the flu? According to what? According to models that have proven pathetically wrong?
Dr Fauci and a lot of the talking heads in the media haven’t seen a patient in twenty years, ivory tower academics and reality are two different things.
Every time you have something new in the medical world, there is fear. The first thing they wanna make sure is to limit liability.
And in the beginning, these models were all we had. From December till March, there were tons of hypotheses.
If you have no data, you must give the virus time. Let it rise up, and study it.
We study coronavirus since the 70s, every year when we get the flu, it’s a new flu virus. 99% is the same, but there are different mutations, which either cause increased virulence or more likely decreased virulence.
This type was transmissible through human beings which was new.
Initially the response to shut down, although debatable because we have never done this, so why now, is acceptable.
But when numbers start flowing in, you can’t stay stubbornly with what you initially did.
We don‘t live in an ivory tower, we are confronted with patients every day, and our unfiltered nonpolitical data show we did not respond appropriately. Looking at theory and models, which is what these folks use, is very different from the way the virus presents itself throughout community’s aka reality.
We all learn every day, it is not about right or wrong, it is about looking to trends and saying hey, we don’t see what they are talking about, time to adjust the policy that crippled the economy and created a lot of domestic issues.
Why our leaders continue taking these measures then?
As a leader, you listen to the people around you. They make decisions on different timelines; this is the best move for now. But as the data moves you get a different answer. Just by looking to our data and to data from elsewhere, I start to understand the progression of the disease in this area, and everywhere.
Nobody talks about the lack of consistency here. Inconsistencies and incongruencies restraint the motivation to adapt.
Coronavirus is on plastics for three days. While we all are sheltering in place, we carry water bottles from Cosco (supermarket), and a plastic shovel from Depot. Plastic bags, gloves, have bacteria and viruses all over them, a mask you touch to take off. Those are carriers of disease and you think it is safe.
Does that make sense to you?
You mingle in those big shops, but we cannot go to work. It is ok to go to the supermarket but not to church or bar, from a microbiological immunological standpoint this does not make sense. If you gonna isolate people you need to shut this all down.
If you don’t come out, vitamin D levels go down, resulting in bad mood, depressed, less resistance. Going outside is healthy, why you can’t go to a park but to Home Depot where nobody is wearing a mask?
If you are healthy with no significant co-morbidities, and you’re not immunodeficient, you should not wear gloves or mask, as it reduces your bacterial flora.
We understand microbiology, we understand immunology and
we want strong immune systems. I don‘t wanna hide in my home developing a weak immune system and then come out and get disease.
We have worked both in an ICU during swine and bird flu. Did we shut down for those, are they much less dangerous than covid, is the flu less dangerous than covid? Let‘s look at the numbers, no it’s not, similar in prevalence and death rate.
Now that we know the facts, it is time to get back to work, develop a strong base with herd immunity building up during summer.
Not only are the death rates lower than for flu, what is interesting, nearly nobody dies from flu anymore now, or from heart disease, diabetes, stroke, overweight, now there is only covid.
I was in hundreds of autopsies before, and we always talk about co-morbidities. Covid can be only one of many reasons, their vessels were narrow, their lungs bad, covid was part of it, it was not thé reason they died folks, one of many reasons!
Same as flu, flu was the extra thing, they had a heart attack two years ago, they had a weakened body, then we did not only put flu, why now?
Now I am being pressured to add covid on the death certificate. These directives coming originally from WHO seem to want to make covid look much worse than it is.
Why would you quarantine the healthy, it does not make any sense!
You quarantine the ill. Even in biblical times they isolated the sick.
That people go without any symptoms does not matter, that is why we advocate massive testing.
There are only two means to get rid of viruses, either you kill them, or you develop herd immunity.
Quarantining the weak and ill prevents them from being killed by viruses. And for the rest of us, we develop the ability to cope with the virus.
The lockdown is not statistically relevant, so why are we doing it?!
Do you want your immune system built of do you want it not built?
The building blocks of your immune system is viruses and bacteria, end of story. There is bacteria and flora that we have to be exposed to, bacteria and viruses that are not virulent are our friends, they protect us against bad guys.
Our conclusions, do we need to shelter, business to be shut down? No!
Do we need to test them, yes, we do!
The secondary effects are a significantly more detrimental thing to society than a virus that has been proven similar in nature to the seasonal flu we have every year.
We need to put measures in place that economic shutdown like this will never happen again, and thus preventing this is a precedent. We should see that you better have a really good scientific reason when you try to shut down our constitutional rights, and not just theory.
All leaders I talked to are in agreement, waiting for the governor to lift this ban, cause the data is showing us it’s time to lift.
And if we don’t lift, we want the reason clearly communicated.
I would start slowly, open up schools, and restaurants and bars.
Now we can go to big shops, where there are probably some hundreds of people, but we can‘t have a coffee sitting there for ten minutes.
Does that make sense to you guys?! Big businesses are open, small businesses are closed, there is no science behind that, maybe there are other factors are in play, but it certainly is not science.
Let’s start opening the businesses up. Start with the food industry, fingerstick tests are just coming out, which enables self-validation. People can test when they go to work.
Eventually we treat this like we treat flu, you have it and you feel bad, stay home, let it resolve and come back.
One thing that is being televised is that we need to capture any single case of corona. No, we don’t, that is not reality.
Are we gonna keep the economy shut down for two years and vaccinate everybody? That’s an unrealistic expectation, you are going to cause financial rupture, domestic violence, suicide, rape and what are you gonna get out of it, you still will miss cases.
We worked in IR’s for 15 years, it would be nice to capture every coronavirus patient, yes, but at what cost, is that realistic and worth it?
Asymptomatic patients usually have the milder version and that tends to spread quicker than the more virulent forms.
We need to treat this like the flu, which is familiar, and eventually, this will mutate, and become les and les virulent.
All of this thrown against the backdrop of knowledge, we don‘t need a double blind clinically controlled trial to tell us if sheltering in place is legitimate and appropriate!
That is a college level and cramped understanding of microbiology.
A lot of times in medicine you have to make educated decisions with the data which you have. I can say something at a 47th floor of a penthouse, you do this and this, but if I haven’t seen a patient for 20 years, this is not realistic. ‘
Is this talk extreme gibberish from a dangerous cult? Why then censoring it on YouTube? Involved citizens asking questions is a blessing for any society. This should be encouraged, rather than prohibited. And this was only one of the many messages on all media that was put down and censored.
Committees have been established to check the social media in order to discriminate the news between facts and fakes. Although seemingly a good initiative to withdraw fake news from the internet in order to protect the people, a lot of other ‘interesting material” is also banned from the internet. The “guy” who decides what’s allowed and what must be banned from the internet, bases himself on his personal beliefs or even worse: his personal agenda.
After this temporary suspending of our Constitutional rights any of our societies needs a thorough introspection -to which all walks of life contribute- as to whether and how the possibility of repeating this in the future should be restricted.
